IHS Automotive 的汽車分析師表示，更多的車輛發(fā)布和更短的產(chǎn)品周期正在重塑全球汽車格局，許多供應(yīng)商難以跟上產(chǎn)品更新?lián)Q代的速度。
2016年至2018年，各大整車廠將在全球市場共計推出434輛新車，比過去三年的車型發(fā)布總和多出約100輛。新車型數(shù)量的劇增將給工程師、工具制造、物流和基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施帶來巨大壓力。在新車發(fā)布速度大幅提升的同時，產(chǎn)品周期也在縮短。
IHS Automotive公司在密歇根的Southfield舉行了2015年秋季新聞發(fā)布會，主題是全球汽車市場研究與分析，總經(jīng)理Michael Robinet表示，“以前，一個車輛的開發(fā)周期要七、八年的時間?，F(xiàn)在是五年完成一個周期。”
競爭問題、法規(guī)要求、以及消費者需求的提升，是幾乎所有新發(fā)布的乘用車開發(fā)周期縮短到五年的主要原因，而與此同時，每兩到三年還會有一次小更新和周期中的改進。
對其他部件的改進來說，周期甚至更短，如外飾燈，前、后保險杠裝飾板，以及車載電子元件等。
“這些改進可以實現(xiàn)快速集成。大多數(shù)車載軟件代碼幾乎每年都在重寫，”Robinet表示，“這也改變了車輛發(fā)布和測試的格局。”
Robinet也提到，汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)內(nèi)各利益相關(guān)方也在應(yīng)對動力總成周期大幅縮短的問題，以前一般是10年一個周期，現(xiàn)在縮短了幾年的時間。
驅(qū)動產(chǎn)品周期縮短的是政府法規(guī)。許多法規(guī)規(guī)定，需要采用新型發(fā)動機逐步替代老發(fā)動機，因為舊款不支持燃油節(jié)約技術(shù)，比如可變氣門正時技術(shù)、隨選排量技術(shù)、或者啟停系統(tǒng)等。
但是，供應(yīng)商卻很難跟上產(chǎn)品快速更新的步伐。
“很多二、三級供應(yīng)商面臨著巨大的挑戰(zhàn)，無法跟上產(chǎn)品更新的速度，”Robinet表示，“問題是，隨著產(chǎn)品更迭的速度加快，全球化水平也在不斷提升。因此，對于這些二、三級，甚至很多一級供應(yīng)商來說，與產(chǎn)品實現(xiàn)同步更新是非常有挑戰(zhàn)性的。”
此外，全球經(jīng)濟發(fā)展更具波動性，其變化常?？煊诋a(chǎn)品的更新速度。目前，巴西和俄羅斯正面臨嚴重衰退，中國的輕型車輛銷售也十分疲軟，已經(jīng)經(jīng)歷了三個月份的負增長。
IHS Automotive的高級首席經(jīng)濟學(xué)家Charles Chesbrough表示，“巴西的經(jīng)濟衰退給菲亞特克萊斯勒帶來了巨大沖擊，因為巴西市場是其重點發(fā)展市場。而歐洲的汽車制造商則備受俄羅斯經(jīng)濟下行的沖擊。而在中國，相比于其他汽車制造商，經(jīng)濟增長放緩給大眾和通用帶來了更為嚴重的影響。”
目前，歐洲、北美、日本和韓國市場的汽車銷量正在反彈。
“自2009年世界經(jīng)濟衰退以來，全球汽車銷售格局發(fā)生了劇變，新興市場成為購買主力，” Chesbrough表示。“但在近幾年，格局有所逆轉(zhuǎn)，大多數(shù)成熟市場已開始復(fù)蘇，現(xiàn)在也已實現(xiàn)較溫和的正增長。”
他也表示，北美、澳大利亞、新西蘭、西歐、日本和韓國的2015年汽車銷量總和最多可達4290萬輛，預(yù)計2020年可達4350萬輛。
對于產(chǎn)品的研發(fā)階段來說，來自全球各汽車市場的信息反饋是非常重要的；但對于實現(xiàn)技術(shù)更新而言，成熟市場人才的專業(yè)知識不可或缺。
“隨著我們市場正在朝全球化道路發(fā)展，您需要擁有足夠的工程知識儲備，以順應(yīng)不斷加快的產(chǎn)品更新的速度。” Chesbrough表示。
作者：Kami Buchholz
來源：SAE《汽車工程雜志》
翻譯：SAE上海辦公室
Suppliers struggling to keep pace with faster product cycles, says IHS
More vehicle launches and faster product cycles are re-shaping the global vehicle landscape, and many suppliers are struggling to keep pace, according to IHS Automotive analysts.
From 2016 through 2018, OEMs will production launch a combined 434 vehicles into global markets. That's nearly 100 more launches than the previous three years’ total, and the dramatically increased activity puts pressure on engineers, tooling, logistics, and the infrastructure. This frenzied pace also occurs amid a shift to shorter product cycles.
“The days of seven- and eight-year vehicle cycles are completely gone. Now it’s a five-year cadence,” Michael Robinet, Managing Director of IHS Automotive, said during the global research and analysis firm’s 2015 fall media briefing at its Southfield, MI offices.
Competitive issues, legislation requirements, and consumer demand are driving the five-year cycle for just about every all-new passenger vehicle, while moderate refresh/mid-cycle enhancements are now occurring every two to three years.
The cycle time is even faster for other modifications that commonly involve exterior lighting, front and rear fascia trim as well as the vehicle cabin’s electronic content.
“We’re integrating all this new content on-the-fly. Most of the software on vehicles is being re-written virtually every year,” said Robinet, “This changes the dynamic of how we launch vehicles and how we test them.”
Industry players are also dealing with a significantly shortened powertrain cycle, going from a typical 10-year span to a single-digit cycle, according to Robinet.
Driving that shorter product cycle are government regulations. In many cases, new engines are needed to phase-out older powerplants that are unable to accommodate fuel-saving technologies, such as variable valve timing, displacement on demand, or a stop/start system.
But working under increasingly accelerated product cycle cadence is proving difficult for the supply base.
“A lot of Tier 2 and Tier 3 suppliers are having tremendous issues keeping up,” said Robinet, “The problem with that is as this cadence gets faster, it also gets more global. And as it gets more global, these Tier 2, Tier 3, and even some Tier 1 suppliers are finding the speed of cadence very challenging.”
Global economies frequently fluctuate and usually at a faster pace than product cycles. Today, Brazil and Russia are in severe recessions, and China is experiencing a softening in its light-duty vehicle sales, including three months of negative growth.
According to Charles Chesbrough, IHS Automotive’s Senior Principal Economist, “FCA has been hurt tremendously from the downturn in Brazil because they’re heavily focused on that market. The European manufacturers are much more impacted by the downturn in Russia. And VW and GM could be impacted more than other automakers by the slight downturn in China.”
Europe, North America, Japan, and Korea are on a sales rebound.
“The source of sales in the world has changed dramatically since the 2009 global recession when the emerging markets were the industry’s saving grace," Chesbrough noted. "But in recent years we’ve seen the flip-flop, and most of the mature markets have started to make their comeback and are now poised for very modest but positive growth.”
He said combined vehicle sales in North America, Australia, New Zealand, Western Europe, Japan and Korea for 2015 will top 42.9 million units with 43.5 million units projected by 2020.
Input from multiple global markets is important to the product development process, but the expertise vested with mature market talent is crucial to accomplishing technology innovations.
“Because we’re moving toward globalized platforms, you really need the knowledge base that a mature market has in terms of the engineering, and that’s important with the move toward shorter product cycle times,” said Chesbrough.
Author: Kami Buchholz
Source: SAE Automotive Enginneering Magazine
IHS Automotive表示，2016年至2018年，各大整車廠將在全球市場共計發(fā)布434款新車，比前三年的新車發(fā)布總和多出近100款。