由于中國經(jīng)濟放緩，整車廠和一級供應(yīng)商將在近期迎來很多變化。上月，在中國重慶舉行的2016年全球汽車論壇（Global Automotive Forum）期間，大會專家預(yù)測，中國汽車行業(yè)將迎來年增長率放緩的“新常態(tài)”，而這可能會給汽車廠商和供應(yīng)商帶來沉重打擊。
“中國的經(jīng)濟增長正下降至較低水平，增長在0-5％與15-20％時的管理有所不同。”亞洲麥格納國際（Asia Magna International）執(zhí)行副總裁Frank O'Brien表示，“低速增長會導(dǎo)致更加激烈的競爭、更加活躍的收購及更多的公司破產(chǎn)。如今，中國將面臨很多與過去北美和歐洲市場很類似的挑戰(zhàn)。”
即使在經(jīng)濟放緩的新常態(tài)之下，中國的國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值（GDP）預(yù)計仍將高于全球絕大多數(shù)地區(qū)。我們可以看到，中國豪車市場的表現(xiàn)依舊強勁。
“作為世界第二大經(jīng)濟體，中國6-7％的增長速度還是不錯的。”戴姆勒（Daimler）負責大中華區(qū)的管理董事會成員Hubertus Troska表示，“梅賽德斯-奔馳（Mercedes Benz）在中國的銷量同比增長35％，超過美國市場。所有在中國市場售出的車輛中，約三分之二均產(chǎn)于中國。”
許多全球一級供應(yīng)商非常關(guān)注中國未來的增長。
“中國是我們?nèi)蜃畲蟮氖袌觥?rdquo;法雷奧中國區(qū)總裁Edouard de Pirey表示，“去年，中國汽車制造商貢獻了20%的汽車銷量，而中國市場則占我們訂單總數(shù)的40%。”
長期以來，中國廠商一直視“出口”為未來的主要增長點，但這些廠商所做的出口嘗試卻并不太成功。分散的當?shù)厥袌稣亲璧K中國廠商實現(xiàn)全球擴張的原因之一。
“有消息稱中國汽車出口將達到中國汽車總銷量的10%。”亞洲智能汽車（Intelligence Automotive Asia）總經(jīng)理(Managing Director)Ashvin Chotai表示，“其實這還說不準。中國的汽車出口面臨一個問題，那就是缺少一個真正的領(lǐng)軍品牌。到2020年，中國的汽車出口量很難實現(xiàn)300萬輛，可能更接近150萬輛左右。”
盡管經(jīng)濟的快速增長正在放緩，但中央規(guī)劃者預(yù)計中國的汽車行業(yè)將實現(xiàn)穩(wěn)健增長，特別是所謂的新能源汽車領(lǐng)域，即使用電池和氫燃料等替代能源的汽車。根據(jù)2016年結(jié)束的“十二五規(guī)劃”，中國的汽車產(chǎn)量將在2020年達到2800萬到3000萬輛。然而，經(jīng)濟放緩可能會阻礙國內(nèi)的汽車銷售，中國政府也有可能因難以承受債務(wù)負擔，而減少財政支持。
“中國已經(jīng)認識到，汽車行業(yè)發(fā)展的關(guān)鍵并不在于‘五年規(guī)劃’，而是市場。”Chotai表示，“中國政府計劃在2020年前，保證6.5%的年均GDP增長。在我看來，這種經(jīng)濟增長很難實現(xiàn)，其中一個很大的問題就是中國的債務(wù)越來越多，這將制約GDP的增長，絕對會起阻礙作用。”
中央規(guī)劃已經(jīng)讓很多公司非常頭疼。中國的市場非常分散，汽車廠商數(shù)不勝數(shù)，供應(yīng)商很難預(yù)測正確這些公司的需求。由于很難預(yù)測需求，以及為了應(yīng)對中央規(guī)劃目標，很多供應(yīng)商都會進入過度生產(chǎn)的狀況。
“我們正在與產(chǎn)能過剩做斗爭。”動力系統(tǒng)元件供應(yīng)商Asimco副總裁Wilson Ni表示，“當時我們的產(chǎn)能被要求需要達到能為300萬輛重卡配套的量級，但去年的重卡產(chǎn)量總共才55萬輛。”
目前，很多生產(chǎn)設(shè)施仍處于從建設(shè)期向全面運轉(zhuǎn)期過渡的階段。與此同時，經(jīng)濟放緩可能會束縛需求的增長，但產(chǎn)量仍在不斷擴大。
麥格納的O'Brien表示，“產(chǎn)能過剩是一個巨大的問題，情況只會變得更糟。”
來自GAF的嘉賓表示，政府必須為產(chǎn)能過剩承擔部分負責，這是因為中國政府曾提供補貼，幫助一部分公司繼續(xù)維持生產(chǎn)。但是，政府所扮演的“大家長”角色也將助長公司的自滿情緒、扼殺創(chuàng)新精神。
“國有企業(yè)的效率一直很低下，他們需要改變。”清華大學法學院講座教授高西慶和鄭裕彤表示，“如果國有企業(yè)一直活在政府的保護之下，不去追求創(chuàng)新，那就意味著我們向國際競爭者敞開了大門。”
隨著中國經(jīng)濟增長放緩到現(xiàn)在所謂的“新常態(tài)”，國內(nèi)的汽車銷售將出現(xiàn)大幅波動。這讓很多公司很難識別業(yè)務(wù)方向，并做出相應(yīng)戰(zhàn)略規(guī)劃。
“增長一直很不穩(wěn)定，未來仍將是這樣。”大陸中國CEO Ralf Cramer表示，“去年，汽車行業(yè)曾在一個月內(nèi)下跌34％，又在同年另一個月中反彈78％。”
一些大會發(fā)言人表示，未來幾年內(nèi)，中國的汽車市場將出現(xiàn)很多收購并購。還有一些專家認為，質(zhì)量問題一直是阻礙中國汽車出口的一大問題。因此，質(zhì)量也將在未來的汽車銷售中發(fā)揮關(guān)鍵作用。
“我們認為一些中國廠商可能會突出重圍，另外一些則可能會失敗。”de Pirey表示，“而提高汽車質(zhì)量是取得成功的關(guān)鍵。”
作者：Terry Costlow
來源：SAE《汽車工程》雜志
翻譯：SAE中國辦公室
OEMs and Tier 1s prepare for China uncertainty, disruptions
As headwinds buffet China's economy, automotive OEMs and Tier 1s are expecting many changes in the near term. At the recent Global Automotive Forum in Chongqing, experts predicted that slower annual growth is “the new normal” for the region’s auto industry and may cause some major disruptions.
“China’s growth is coming down to lower levels, it’s different managing for 0-5% growth than for 15-20%,” said Frank O'Brien, Executive Vice President, Asia MagnaInternational. “Characteristics of a slow growth era are increased competition, more acquisitions and more bankruptcies. Many of the challenges now will be more similar to what’s been seen in North America and Europe.”
Even in the new normal, China’s gross domestic product is expected to grow at significantly higher rates than most regions. Segments like luxury cars remain quite strong.
“A 6-7% growth rate from the second biggest economy is good,” said Hubertus Troska, the Board of Management Member at Daimler who’s responsible for Greater China. “Mercedes Benz sales grew by 35% here, surpassing the U.S. market. Two thirds of the cars solid in China are made in China.”
Many global Tier 1s are focusing on China for future growth.
“China is our first country worldwide,” said Edouard de Pirey, President of ValeoChina. “Chinese car manufacturers represented 20% of sales last year but they’re 40% of our orders.”
Chinese OEMs have long discussed exports as a major growth opportunity, but those efforts have largely failed. The fragmented local market is one of the factors that’s prevented China’s automakers from expanding globally.
“There’s talk about China reaching an export level of 10%,” said Ashvin Chotai, Managing Director, Intelligence Automotive Asia. “That’s still a question. One problem with exports is that no leading brand is the Chinese National Champion. It will be difficult to get to 3 million units by 2020, it will probably be closer to 1.5 or two million.”
While China’s rapid economic growth is slowing, central planners expect solid growth in the automotive industry, particularly so-called New Energy Vehicles that use alternative power such as batteries and hydrogen. The Five Year Plan completed in 2016 predicts that auto production will hit 28-30 million by 2020. However, a slowing economy may hamper domestic sales and government support could diminish due to debt loads.
“China has recognized that the auto industry is not drive by the five-year plan, it’s driven by markets,” Chotai said. “The government is planning on 6.5 % GDP growth through 2020. In my opinion, that will be hard to do. One big concern is the growth of the national debt. That may put a cap on GDP growth. It’s certainly a headwind.”
Central planning has caused headaches for some companies. China’s market is very fragmented, with many OEMs, so suppliers find it difficult to predict their demands. This complexity, combined with the pressure of preparing to meet central plan goals, led to overbuilding by many suppliers.
“We’re struggling with overcapacity,” said Wilson Ni, Vice President at Asimco, a powertrain components supplier. “We were asked to build up capacity for three million trucks, but last your only 550,000 were produced.
Many production facilities are still moving from construction to full operation. At the same time, the slowing economy may hamper demand while output is still growing.
“Excess capacity is a huge problem that will only get worse,” Magna's O'Brien said.
Some of this overcapacity can be attributed to the role of the government. Subsidies have helped some companies keep their production from failing. The government’s ownership role has fostered complacency and stifled innovation, according to a plenary speaker at GAF.
“The state-owned enterprises have been inefficient, they need to change,” said Gao Xiqing, Cheng Yu-tung, Chair Professor, Tsinghua University School of Law. “If state-owned enterprises are protected and don’t innovate, we’re opening the door for international competitors.”
As the Chinese economy slows into what’s often called the new normal, vehicle sales are fluctuating wildly. That’s making it tough for companies to discern business direction and make strategic plans.
“Growth has been very volatile, and that will continue,” said Ralf Cramer, CEO ofContinental China. “Last year the auto industry lost 34% in one month and jumped back 78% in a month later in the year.”
There may be some consolidation in the next few years, some GAF speakers said. Many noted that quality has been an issue that slowed exports, so it will play a key role in future sales.
“We think some Chinese OEMs will win, some will disappear,” de Pirey said. “The winners will succeed by improving the quality of their cars.”
Author: Terry Costlow
Source: SAE Automotive Engineering Magazine
亞洲智能汽車總經(jīng)理Ashvin Chotai 表示，到2020年中國的汽車出口量可能會遠低于政府預(yù)測的300萬輛。