有些人不相信自動(dòng)駕駛汽車(chē)將在可以預(yù)見(jiàn)的未來(lái)成為現(xiàn)實(shí)，對(duì)此，多位汽車(chē)廠商和大型供應(yīng)商的高級(jí)技術(shù)總監(jiān)給出了這樣的回應(yīng)：自動(dòng)駕駛汽車(chē)的到來(lái)“就在眼前。”
在底特律附近舉行的SAE 2016汽車(chē)電子大會(huì)（SAE 2016 Convergence）上，汽車(chē)產(chǎn)業(yè)供應(yīng)商巨頭德?tīng)柛＃―elphi）首席技術(shù)官Jeff Owens給出了這樣的回答，并贏得了幾乎所有同行的贊同。福特公司（Ford）研發(fā)與先進(jìn)工程副總裁Ken Washington也同意Owens的看法。
“證據(jù)就在我們周?chē)?rdquo;Washington斷言，“我堅(jiān)信我們一定可以實(shí)現(xiàn)福特公司的2021年目標(biāo)，即在2021年前推出一款符合SAE J3016標(biāo)準(zhǔn)定義的全自動(dòng)駕駛汽車(chē)。”
Washington補(bǔ)充說(shuō)，縱觀汽車(chē)行業(yè)的歷史，新技術(shù)的成熟速度，總是會(huì)讓那些持懷疑態(tài)度的人大跌眼鏡。眾所周知，科技公司的創(chuàng)新速度快得驚人，再加上摩爾定律的作用，自動(dòng)駕駛汽車(chē)時(shí)代的到來(lái)，可能會(huì)比人們想象的更快。
通用汽車(chē)(General Motors)副總裁、CTO兼投資主管Jon Lanckner表示，通用已經(jīng)加快了自動(dòng)駕駛技術(shù)的研發(fā)進(jìn)程，并積極與更多相關(guān)的技術(shù)公司建立合作伙伴關(guān)系。他提到，通用汽車(chē)已經(jīng)開(kāi)始在美國(guó)加利福尼亞州的舊金山市和亞利桑那州的斯科茨代爾市進(jìn)行自動(dòng)駕駛汽車(chē)測(cè)試。
當(dāng)然，還有一些反對(duì)的聲音認(rèn)為，自動(dòng)駕駛汽車(chē)的真正到來(lái)，可能是下一代人才能看到的，甚至還會(huì)需要更長(zhǎng)的時(shí)間。Lauckner在回應(yīng)這一觀點(diǎn)時(shí)幽默地打趣道，“我可以向你保證，我們絕不打算沒(méi)完沒(méi)了地一直測(cè)試下去。”
哈曼國(guó)際（Harman International）互聯(lián)汽車(chē)執(zhí)行副總裁Phillip Eyler也認(rèn)為，自動(dòng)駕駛汽車(chē)的到來(lái)將比大家想象的更快，但作為一家車(chē)載信息娛樂(lè)系統(tǒng)、駕駛員接口硬件/軟件及其他車(chē)內(nèi)電子產(chǎn)品供應(yīng)商，哈曼也同時(shí)表示，自動(dòng)駕駛汽車(chē)的出現(xiàn)是一回事，大規(guī)模普及又是另一回事。
Eyler表示，“我認(rèn)為，自動(dòng)駕駛汽車(chē)的普及還有很長(zhǎng)的路要走。”
好的，自動(dòng)駕駛就在眼前，但到底會(huì)有多“自動(dòng)”呢？
目前，汽車(chē)和科技行業(yè)領(lǐng)袖探討的焦點(diǎn)，主要圍繞在到底何種自動(dòng)駕駛級(jí)別最有利于自動(dòng)駕駛汽車(chē)在最初階段及日后發(fā)展中更為廣泛的逐步普及。
大家的爭(zhēng)論焦點(diǎn)主要集中在SAE自動(dòng)駕駛分級(jí)中的 L3和L4兩個(gè)級(jí)別。具體來(lái)說(shuō)，L3級(jí)自動(dòng)駕駛為“有條件的自動(dòng)駕駛”，即可在特定環(huán)境下允許駕駛員“脫手”；L4級(jí)自動(dòng)駕駛的應(yīng)用范圍則更加廣泛，即可以在一些通常需要駕駛員干預(yù)的情況下，也能實(shí)現(xiàn)自動(dòng)駕駛。
目前，許多汽車(chē)制造商、供應(yīng)商和科技公司均委婉地表示，L3級(jí)自動(dòng)駕駛在風(fēng)險(xiǎn)控制和收益回報(bào)方面的實(shí)現(xiàn)難度很大，而從L2級(jí)駕駛員協(xié)助系統(tǒng)直接過(guò)渡至L4級(jí)全自動(dòng)系統(tǒng)已經(jīng)可以實(shí)現(xiàn)。
福特的Washington在大會(huì)上表示，實(shí)現(xiàn)高度自動(dòng)化駕駛“需要采用自上而下，而非自下而上的措施。”他還補(bǔ)充道，福特已經(jīng)將公司向L2級(jí)駕駛員輔助系統(tǒng)的投資增加了2倍。“福特準(zhǔn)備直接從L2跳到L4級(jí)全自動(dòng)駕駛，”他說(shuō)，“L3級(jí)對(duì)我們來(lái)說(shuō)沒(méi)有什么經(jīng)濟(jì)效益。”
哈曼的Eyler也持相同觀點(diǎn)，他說(shuō)，“L4級(jí)全自動(dòng)駕駛使用了一套完全不同的技術(shù)，投資規(guī)模也完全不在一個(gè)級(jí)別。”不過(guò)，Eyler也相信，還是會(huì)有一部分廠商可能不會(huì)跳過(guò)L3級(jí)的過(guò)渡。
目前，從多個(gè)層面來(lái)看，SAE L3級(jí)自動(dòng)駕駛相關(guān)技術(shù)的研發(fā)已經(jīng)有點(diǎn)得不償失。廠商第一個(gè)要考慮的就是同時(shí)開(kāi)發(fā)L3和L4級(jí)技術(shù)的成本壓力。從技術(shù)研發(fā)的經(jīng)濟(jì)性來(lái)說(shuō)，“L3級(jí)自動(dòng)駕駛一直是個(gè)有爭(zhēng)議的話題，”德?tīng)柛５腛wens表示，“你必須直接跳過(guò)L3級(jí)的半自動(dòng)駕駛級(jí)別。”
另外，優(yōu)步（Uber）、Lyft等駕乘分享公司也希望利用自動(dòng)駕駛技術(shù)節(jié)省雇傭人類司機(jī)的成本，因此也為直接跳級(jí)實(shí)現(xiàn)L4級(jí)全自動(dòng)駕駛的熱潮添了一把火?？紤]到無(wú)人駕駛叫車(chē)服務(wù)的巨大市場(chǎng)潛力，汽車(chē)行業(yè)根本沒(méi)有理由在困難重重且成本高昂的L3級(jí)半自動(dòng)駕駛技術(shù)研發(fā)上繼續(xù)戀戰(zhàn)。
直接買(mǎi)還是自己造？
在SAE 2016汽車(chē)電子大會(huì)與展覽上，專家們還探討了汽車(chē)生產(chǎn)商可能采取的自動(dòng)駕駛戰(zhàn)略，比如內(nèi)部研發(fā)、尋求技術(shù)公司合作，或者直接收購(gòu)一些自動(dòng)駕駛技術(shù)公司。汽車(chē)制造商開(kāi)始大舉收購(gòu)技術(shù)公司，已經(jīng)有一段時(shí)間了。
通用汽車(chē)的Lauckner表示，“我們可以花大量時(shí)間延續(xù)過(guò)去的模式，也就是進(jìn)行內(nèi)部研發(fā)。”但他同時(shí)補(bǔ)充，未來(lái)公司將更多采用“直接收購(gòu)特定技術(shù)公司的新模式”。
福特的Washington表示，因?yàn)閾碛幸话俣嗄攴e累下來(lái)的汽車(chē)研發(fā)經(jīng)驗(yàn)，汽車(chē)制造商的整合能力很強(qiáng)。他說(shuō)，“而我們并不拿手的技術(shù)研發(fā)，也可以通過(guò)建立合作伙伴關(guān)系或收并購(gòu)解決。”
德?tīng)柛５腛wens還提出了另一種大型供應(yīng)商和較小汽車(chē)制造商希望嘗試的模式，即由供應(yīng)商充當(dāng)一站式自動(dòng)駕駛系統(tǒng)提供商。他指出，德?tīng)柛Ｒ言?016年夏季宣布將與以色列機(jī)器視覺(jué)專家Mobileye建立合作伙伴轉(zhuǎn)系，聯(lián)合開(kāi)發(fā)完整自動(dòng)駕駛系統(tǒng)。
For those who believe it unlikely autonomously-piloted vehicles will be coming in the foreseeable future, high-level technology executives from automakers and major suppliers have this response: autonomous vehicles are “going to be here very shortly.”
That’s the conclusion of Jeff Owens, Chief Technology Officer for automotive mega-supplier Delphi, a position supported almost universally by his fellow panelists on the opening day of the SAE 2016 Convergence conference near Detroit. Ken Washington, Vice-President, Research and Advanced Engineering at Ford, agreed with Owens.
“The evidence is all around us," Washington asserted. "I am very optimistic that [Ford’s] target of 2021 (for launching a fully-autonomous vehicle as defined by the SAE’s J3016 standard) is going to be achievable.”
Washington added that throughout automotive history, the speed at which technology matures never fails to surprise doubters. Blend in the famously furious pace at which technology companies innovate, along with Moore's Law, and the foundation seems prepared for a quicker-than-predicted adoption.
General Motors has accelerated its autonomous-technology development and partnerships with autonomous-related tech companies, said Jon Lauckner, GM Vice President, CTO and head of GM Ventures. He noted that GM has autonomous-vehicle testing underway on public roads in San Francisco, CA and Scottsdale, AZ.
“I can assure you our plan is not to test for the next 30 years,” Lauckner quipped in response to naysayers’ position that it will be a generation or more before autonomous vehicles are a fixture on U.S. roads.
Phillip Eyler, Executive Vice President, Connected Car at Harman International, generally agreed that autonomous vehicles are coming sooner than later, but the position of Harman—a supplier of in-car infotainment systems, driver-interface hardware and software and other cabin electronics—is that the date of introduction may be one thing, but wide adoption of autonomy will come on a more-protracted timeframe.
“I believe there will be a long transition to a high population of autonomous cars,” Eyler said.
Okay, autonomous—but at what level?
One of the automotive and tech industries’ chief talking points currently centers around which SAE level of autonomy is going to be most appropriate for initial—and eventual widespread—deployment.
The dialogue centers on the gap between SAE Level 3 automation—generally described as “conditional automation” that can necessitate a “hand-off” from automation to human driving in certain situations—and Level 4 autonomy which can pilot the vehicle even in a situation in which the system requests human intervention.
Many automakers, suppliers and tech companies now suggest that Level 3 autonomy is too difficult to engineer in relation to the risk (and payback), instead suggesting a transition from the Level 2 driver-assistance systems already available directly to Level 4.
High-level driving automation “needs to be approached top-down instead of bottom-up,” said Ford’s Washington. In the interim, he added, Ford is tripling its investment in Level 2 driver-assist technology. “Ford is skipping Level 3 at the moment,” he said. “The economics don’t make sense to us.”
Harman’s Eyler agreed.“Level 4 is a totally different set of technologies and investments,” he stated. However there will be a Level 3 transition at some OEMs, Eyler believes.
The cost of developing technology capable of accommodating SAE Level 3 automation is beginning to appear unproductive on several levels. First is the direct cost of the divergent Level 3 and Level 4 technologies. Economics of such development “are going to make Level 3 almost a moot point,” contended Delphi’s Owens. “You’re going to go right by Level 3.”
But the impetus for skipping directly to Level 4 also is driven by the desire of ride-sharing companies such as Uber, Lyft and others to eliminate the expense of human drivers. Given the potential enormous market for driverless ride-hailing vehicles, it seems all the more logical that development will not linger on the difficult and expensive-to-engineer conditional-automation aspects of Level 3.
Buy it or make it?
Panelists at SAE Convergence 2016 also discussed the strategy by which automakers determine whether to develop autonomous-related technologies in-house, seek partnerships with tech companies or, in some cases, to buy some companies outright. Automakers have for some time been underway with a spree of tech-company acquisitions.
GM’s Lauckner said “We can spend a lot of time working the ‘old model,’ which is build it ourselves.” But he added, buying companies with specific technical expertise “is a model we’re going to need to embrace.”
Thanks to a century of vehicle-development experience, automakers are ideally placed to be high-level integrators said Ford’s Washington. “It’s what we’re good at,” he said, while development of technology that is “not in our sweet spot of capability” will be partnered or potentially bought outright.
Delphi’s Owen’s pointed to another model that large suppliers and smaller automakers hope to exploit: suppliers as providers of turnkey autonomous-driving systems. He points to Delphi’s partnership, announced in summer 2016, with Israeli machine-vision expert Mobileye to develop entire autonomous-driving systems.
Author: Bill Visnic
Source: SAE Automotive Engineering Magazine
SAE 2016汽車(chē)電子大會(huì)與展覽的“創(chuàng)新議題專家討論”中，匯集了來(lái)自德?tīng)柛！⒎苼喬乜巳R斯勒、福特、通用和哈曼國(guó)際的眾多高級(jí)別技術(shù)官員。
證據(jù)就在我們周?chē)?，”福特汽?chē)的Ken Washington表示，自動(dòng)駕駛汽車(chē)時(shí)代的到來(lái)，只會(huì)早不會(huì)晚。
通用汽車(chē)首席技術(shù)官Jon Lauckner表示，到2020年，美國(guó)大約將有5000萬(wàn)民眾在使用某種形式的“交通即服務(wù)（TaaS）”。
“監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)和消費(fèi)者都對(duì)汽車(chē)提出了更多要求?！钡?tīng)柛５腏eff Owens補(bǔ)充說(shuō)，駕駛員輔助技術(shù)僅用20%的成本增加，就能實(shí)現(xiàn)80%的安全性提升。
福特最近宣布，公司計(jì)劃在2021年前推出全自動(dòng)駕駛汽車(chē)，用來(lái)承擔(dān)駕乘分享任務(wù)。