在多個(gè)因素的作用之下，汽車行業(yè)可能將在未來幾年內(nèi)迎來歷史上最具顛覆性的變化?；ヂ?lián)功能和自動(dòng)化所帶來的變化不僅將改變整個(gè)汽車行業(yè)的面貌，而且也會(huì)給供應(yīng)鏈上的各個(gè)環(huán)節(jié)均帶來一定影響。
今年，在美國密歇根州諾維市舉行的SAE 2016汽車電子大會(huì)的“分析師觀點(diǎn)：供應(yīng)鏈現(xiàn)狀”討論環(huán)節(jié)中，各位業(yè)內(nèi)專家詳細(xì)介紹了技術(shù)發(fā)展和人口結(jié)構(gòu)特征變化可能給汽車行業(yè)帶來的重大影響。
羅蘭貝格戰(zhàn)略咨詢公司的Marc Winterhoff強(qiáng)調(diào)了將在未來幾年內(nèi)主導(dǎo)汽車行業(yè)的四大因素——出行服務(wù)共享、汽車互聯(lián)、車輛電氣化和SAE 5級(jí)自動(dòng)駕駛技術(shù)。這些因素均將在未來一段時(shí)期內(nèi)推動(dòng)汽車行業(yè)穩(wěn)步增長，但是，一旦全自動(dòng)駕駛的“機(jī)器人出租車”出現(xiàn)，就將開始改變汽車共享的世界。
“即使在如今這樣一個(gè)極具顛覆性的環(huán)境下，汽車行業(yè)發(fā)展勢(shì)頭仍將不減。”Winterhoff表示，“到2025年以前，汽車產(chǎn)量將持續(xù)保持增長。而到2030年‘機(jī)器人出租車’開始穩(wěn)住腳跟時(shí)，駕乘分享服務(wù)則會(huì)大幅減少。”
咨詢公司 德勤 的Joseph Vitale指出，人口結(jié)構(gòu)特點(diǎn)改變對(duì)汽車市場(chǎng)轉(zhuǎn)型的影響，不亞于汽車技術(shù)的發(fā)展。德勤的調(diào)查結(jié)果顯示，Y時(shí)代出生的美國汽車用戶，非常熱衷于最新的汽車技術(shù)。
Vitale表示，“他們?cè)敢鉃檫@些技術(shù)支付的費(fèi)用，比嬰兒潮時(shí)期出生的用戶高4倍。”
人口結(jié)構(gòu)的變化也將推動(dòng)全自動(dòng)駕駛汽車時(shí)代的到來。嬰兒潮時(shí)期出生的一代人逐漸進(jìn)入老年，他們可能會(huì)轉(zhuǎn)而使用全自動(dòng)“機(jī)器人出租車”，而不再自己開車。
“自動(dòng)駕駛汽車的關(guān)鍵市場(chǎng)是老年人和殘障人士，這部分用戶通常資金充裕，出行需求也不會(huì)太緊急，”Glenn Mercer Automotive公司的Glenn Mercer表示，“他們可能不愿意一直依賴朋友或家人的接送。”
傳統(tǒng)車輛動(dòng)力系統(tǒng)的電氣化，將成為改變汽車行業(yè)的另一個(gè)重要因素。Vitale指出，為了解決污染問題，中國的監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)正在強(qiáng)制推進(jìn)國內(nèi)汽車行業(yè)的電氣化。Winterhoff預(yù)測(cè)，電動(dòng)車的市場(chǎng)占有率將在2025年前迎來驚人的增長。
此后，“機(jī)器人出租車”（絕大多數(shù)已經(jīng)采用全電動(dòng)推進(jìn)系統(tǒng)）將迎來穩(wěn)定增長。然而，盡管各位專家均承認(rèn)汽車電氣化扮演的重要角色，但他們?cè)诒緦么髸?huì)上的關(guān)注重點(diǎn)卻并非僅限于插電式電動(dòng)車。
“未來三到五年內(nèi)，汽車行業(yè)的最大變革將發(fā)生在內(nèi)燃機(jī)領(lǐng)域。”瑞銀集團(tuán)的Colin Langan表示，“許多公司都在開發(fā)48V電氣系統(tǒng)，而這可能會(huì)推遲電動(dòng)汽車的普及，畢竟48V系統(tǒng)僅用25%的成本就能實(shí)現(xiàn)混動(dòng)汽車75%的效益。”
Many factors are making the next few years one of most disruptive eras the automotive industry has ever seen. Diverse dynamics such as connectivity and autonomy will transform the industry and impact companies throughout the supply chain.
A number of industry experts detailed a variety of ways that technology and demographics will have a transformative influence during the “State of the Supply Chain: An Analyst’s View” panel at 2016 SAE Convergence in Novi, MI.
Marc Winterhoff of Roland Berger Strategy Consultants highlighted four major trends that will dominate the industry over the next few years: shared mobility, connectivity, electrification and Level 5 autonomous driving. These changes will fuel solid growth until autonomous "robocabs" transform that segment of the shared-vehicle world.
“Even in this disruptive environment, good times are coming for the auto industry,” Winterhoff said. “Shipments will grow through 2025. Ride sharing will largely fade away by 2030 as robocabs take hold.”
Joseph Vitale of Deloitte & Touche LLP noted that demographics will have as much of a role in market changes as do shifting trends in vehicle technology. The firm’s surveys show that in the U.S., Generation Y vehicle buyers want the latest technology.
“They will pay as much as four times as much as baby boomers said they will pay,” Vitale said.
Changing demographics also could play a role in the emergence of autonomous vehicles. Aging baby boomers may utilize autonomous robocabs rather than drive.
“Key markets for autonomous vehicles are elderly and disabled people who are dissatisfied with depending on friends and family for rides,” said Glenn Mercer of Glenn Mercer Automotive LLC. “They have money and they don’t need to go far or go fast.”
Electrified powertrains will be a significant disruptor. Vitale noted that China’s regulators are mandating electrification as they address the country’s pollution problems. Winterhoff predicted that EVs will see evolutionary market penetration through 2025.
Around that time, robocabs—most of which will have all-electric propulsion—will start seeing solid growth. Although panelists all predicted that electrification will be a primary game-changer, their focus at Convergence wasn't strictly on plug-in vehicles.
“In the next three to five years, the biggest trends will be in the internal-combustion engine,” said Colin Langan of UBS Inc. “Many companies are developing 48-volt electrical systems, which could (extend the timeframe for) electric-vehicle adoption; 48-volt can provide 75% of the benefits of hybrids at about 25% of the cost.”
Author: Terry Costlow
Source: SAE Automotive Engineering Magazine
德勤公司全球汽車業(yè)務(wù)主管Joseph Vitale表示，與嬰兒潮時(shí)期出生的買家相比，Y時(shí)代的汽車用戶愿意為最新汽車技術(shù)支付更多費(fèi)用。