產(chǎn)品規(guī)劃師語(yǔ)錄：“你們的‘雷達(dá)’技術(shù)準(zhǔn)確度如何，足以幫助車(chē)輛實(shí)現(xiàn)2020年的自動(dòng)駕駛目標(biāo)嗎？還是只是讓公司白花錢(qián)而已？”
回顧過(guò)去，車(chē)輛工程的歷史中充滿(mǎn)了各種對(duì)未來(lái)技術(shù)趨勢(shì)的錯(cuò)誤解讀，以及不計(jì)其數(shù)“最終被砍掉”的項(xiàng)目。其中，未來(lái)的動(dòng)力系統(tǒng)和燃料應(yīng)用是最難預(yù)測(cè)的。上世紀(jì)60年代，在燃?xì)廨啓C(jī)汽車(chē)技術(shù)的競(jìng)賽中，克萊斯勒（Chrysler）曾打造了55款燃?xì)廨啓C(jī)，其中一款還可使用多種燃料，包括龍舌蘭酒。那時(shí)，一大批卡車(chē)制造商也跟著走上了燃?xì)廨啓C(jī)的道路，但最終都撲了一場(chǎng)空。
30年多年來(lái)，至少有十多家廠(chǎng)商投資在汪克爾（Wankel）轉(zhuǎn)子發(fā)動(dòng)機(jī)的許可證和原型車(chē)上，共計(jì)花費(fèi)了數(shù)十億美元。1958年，福特汽車(chē)（Ford）甚至曾滿(mǎn)腦子想著利用微型核反應(yīng)堆給汽車(chē)供電，并真的著手開(kāi)始打造一款3/8比例的福特“Nucleon”核動(dòng)力汽車(chē)原型。
上世紀(jì)50年代后期的產(chǎn)品規(guī)劃風(fēng)格。福特曾計(jì)劃推出一款神奇的未來(lái)核動(dòng)力汽車(chē)Nucleon，還曾計(jì)劃在幾年后推出一款下置發(fā)動(dòng)機(jī)（發(fā)動(dòng)機(jī)置于駕駛室下方）的皮卡。
里卡多（Ricardo）公司的首席技術(shù)創(chuàng)新官Neville Jackson教授指出，如今，準(zhǔn)確預(yù)測(cè)新技術(shù)的成熟程度，并判斷該技術(shù)是否真的做好了量產(chǎn)準(zhǔn)備，這其中的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)比過(guò)去更高。
“產(chǎn)品規(guī)劃一直是汽車(chē)行業(yè)所面臨的關(guān)鍵挑戰(zhàn)。”Jackson告訴《汽車(chē)工程》，“考慮到如今包括動(dòng)力系統(tǒng)技術(shù)在內(nèi)的產(chǎn)品選擇不斷豐富，汽車(chē)廠(chǎng)商的產(chǎn)品規(guī)劃需要經(jīng)過(guò)更嚴(yán)格管理，不僅要針對(duì)某款具體車(chē)型，更要著眼于公司的生產(chǎn)制造靈活度，從而通過(guò)合理的規(guī)劃讓不同的汽車(chē)能夠?qū)崿F(xiàn)跨平臺(tái)的協(xié)同效應(yīng)。”
Johnson認(rèn)為，汽車(chē)的整個(gè)設(shè)計(jì)、工程和制造系統(tǒng)需要緊密結(jié)合整個(gè)產(chǎn)品可選范圍進(jìn)行選擇。他警告說(shuō)，汽車(chē)廠(chǎng)商不能指望各種技術(shù)“面面俱到”，因?yàn)檫@種戰(zhàn)略的成本過(guò)于高昂。Johnson表示，“最困難的就是做出取舍。”
畢馬威汽車(chē)業(yè)務(wù)英國(guó)總監(jiān)John Leech相信，英國(guó)的環(huán)境特別適合率先開(kāi)始采用自動(dòng)駕駛汽車(chē)服務(wù)。
互聯(lián)汽車(chē)的收益如何？
最近，行業(yè)咨詢(xún)公司畢馬威（KPMG）出版的《全球汽車(chē)行業(yè)高管意見(jiàn)調(diào)查（2017版）》（Global Automotive Executive Survey 2017）強(qiáng)調(diào)了移動(dòng)出行領(lǐng)域產(chǎn)品規(guī)劃師所面臨的挑戰(zhàn)。這份去年秋天開(kāi)展的網(wǎng)絡(luò)調(diào)查結(jié)果顯示，大約有74%的英國(guó)汽車(chē)高管預(yù)測(cè)，大約有50%的車(chē)主表示，在未來(lái)十年內(nèi)將不再愿意自己購(gòu)置汽車(chē)，自動(dòng)駕駛技術(shù)和交通出行服務(wù)將成為他們的優(yōu)先選擇。
“未來(lái)，汽車(chē)制造商的成績(jī)將不再單單取決于售出車(chē)輛的數(shù)量，而是在完整車(chē)輛使用周期中為客戶(hù)創(chuàng)造的總價(jià)值，特別是在數(shù)字生態(tài)系統(tǒng)已經(jīng)做好準(zhǔn)備，將要大舉進(jìn)入市場(chǎng)的大環(huán)境下。”畢馬威汽車(chē)業(yè)務(wù)主管John Leech認(rèn)為，“汽車(chē)廠(chǎng)商必須開(kāi)始思考。”他還指出，超過(guò)75%的受訪(fǎng)者均認(rèn)為，1輛互聯(lián)汽車(chē)在完整使用周期中創(chuàng)造的價(jià)值相當(dāng)于10輛非互聯(lián)汽車(chē)。
畢馬威公司推斷，消費(fèi)者需求從“汽車(chē)購(gòu)買(mǎi)”向“汽車(chē)使用”轉(zhuǎn)移可能會(huì)降低市場(chǎng)對(duì)車(chē)輛的需求，因此，未來(lái)幾年內(nèi)，廠(chǎng)商制造汽車(chē)的利潤(rùn)將有所降低。但調(diào)查顯示，絕大多數(shù)汽車(chē)行業(yè)高管對(duì)此并不感到擔(dān)心：85%的受訪(fǎng)者表示，他們確信，汽車(chē)廠(chǎng)商可以通過(guò)提供新型數(shù)字服務(wù)，創(chuàng)造比之前僅出售汽車(chē)更高的利潤(rùn)。
里卡多公司的Jackson指出，雖然自動(dòng)汽車(chē)技術(shù)正在飛速發(fā)展，“但（SAE）4級(jí)和5級(jí)自動(dòng)駕駛的真正到來(lái)，還需要克服眾多技術(shù)、運(yùn)營(yíng)和安全方面的挑戰(zhàn)。”他解釋道，“一旦能夠解決這些問(wèn)題，自動(dòng)駕駛汽車(chē)對(duì)最終用戶(hù)的吸引力將是毋庸置疑的。”
Jackson補(bǔ)充說(shuō)，目前，行業(yè)需要面臨的問(wèn)題之一在于多數(shù)汽車(chē)的利用率“非常低”，估計(jì)很多車(chē)輛的利用率還不到5%。
Jackson猜測(cè)，“隨著車(chē)輛的技術(shù)含量和內(nèi)含價(jià)值逐步增加，一種采用‘按次付費(fèi)’或‘共享使用’模式的，基于服務(wù)的汽車(chē)運(yùn)行模式可能會(huì)應(yīng)運(yùn)而生。”他補(bǔ)充說(shuō)，這種模式可能會(huì)大大降低汽車(chē)單位里程的使用成本，轉(zhuǎn)型將勢(shì)在必行。
畢馬威的Leech認(rèn)為，英國(guó)的環(huán)境特別適宜率先開(kāi)始采用Jackson口中的“服務(wù)型”汽車(chē)模式。英國(guó)政府的“綠帶”政策創(chuàng)造了一個(gè)相對(duì)密集的城市人口環(huán)境，這里的燃料成本很高。這意味著，SAE 5級(jí)自動(dòng)駕駛出租車(chē)能夠?yàn)橛?guó)民眾節(jié)省的交通支出將高于歐洲和北美市場(chǎng)。
Leech表示，“我相信，機(jī)器人出租車(chē)將在未來(lái)5到10年內(nèi)徹底改變英國(guó)的城市交通面貌。”
里卡多的Neville Jackson教授表示，“我認(rèn)為產(chǎn)品規(guī)劃一直是汽車(chē)行業(yè)所面臨的關(guān)鍵挑戰(zhàn)。”
柴油車(chē)技術(shù)將何去何從？
畢馬威的調(diào)查還發(fā)現(xiàn)，62%的汽車(chē)高管認(rèn)為柴油車(chē)技術(shù)已經(jīng)是“過(guò)去時(shí)”了。由于全球?qū)O2和NOx排放的關(guān)切不斷增加，未來(lái)這種“傳統(tǒng)”動(dòng)力汽車(chē)將逐步從汽車(chē)廠(chǎng)商的產(chǎn)品目錄中消失。
里卡多的Johnson則表示，柴油動(dòng)力系統(tǒng)在乘用車(chē)領(lǐng)域的能效優(yōu)勢(shì)將長(zhǎng)期存在，“離過(guò)時(shí)還早著呢。”但他的確懷疑柴油動(dòng)力系統(tǒng)的能效優(yōu)勢(shì)能否足以支持這種燃料技術(shù)的研發(fā)、實(shí)施成本，特別是在柴油技術(shù)多用于非豪華車(chē)型的情況下。
“柴油動(dòng)力系統(tǒng)將會(huì)面臨一些不利影響，部分城市計(jì)劃禁止柴油車(chē)的使用，這無(wú)疑會(huì)打消用戶(hù)購(gòu)買(mǎi)柴油車(chē)的想法，盡管這些政策可能主要針對(duì)的僅僅是一些老舊的車(chē)型。”Johnson指出，“考慮到這些原因，我們幾乎可以肯定，未來(lái)柴油乘用車(chē)的市場(chǎng)份額將隨著時(shí)間推移逐步縮小。不過(guò)，對(duì)于大巴和卡車(chē)等在治理措施出臺(tái)后更容易實(shí)現(xiàn)改造的重型車(chē)輛而言，情況就不一樣了，這類(lèi)車(chē)型可選的燃料動(dòng)力技術(shù)非常有限，甚至可以說(shuō)根本沒(méi)有其他選擇。”
畢馬威還有一個(gè)出人意料的發(fā)現(xiàn)：93%受訪(fǎng)高管所在的公司，均有計(jì)劃在未來(lái)5年中投資純電動(dòng)汽車(chē)。事實(shí)上，他們預(yù)測(cè)，純電動(dòng)汽車(chē)將在2025年之前統(tǒng)治全球汽車(chē)市場(chǎng)。
Product planners: How accurate is your technology ‘radar?’ Will the feature content you’ve bet on for 2020 be a hit—or a costly miss—in the marketplace?
Vehicle engineering history is littered with misread technology trends and cancelled development programs. Future powertrains and fuels have been the trickiest. Pursuing gas-turbine power for cars in the 1960s, Chrysler built 55 units including one that demonstrated its multi-fuel capability by running on tequila. A number of truckmakers also followed the turbine route without payoff.
At least a dozen OEMs collectively spent billions on Wankel rotary-engine licenses and prototypes over three decades. And Ford even flirted with the idea of micro nuclear reactors, working up its 3/8-scale “Nucleon” concept in 1958.
Predicting the status of a new technology and deciding if and when to commit to its production is riskier than ever before, noted Prof. Neville Jackson, Ricardo’s Chief Technology and Innovation Officer.
“Product planning always has been a crucial challenge for the industry," he told Automotive Engineering. "The increasing diversity of product offerings, including different powertrain technologies, requires very careful management not just of the product planning process for each individual model, but of the manufacturing flexibilities required to leverage cross-platform synergies."
Jackson believes the entire automotive design, engineering and manufacturing sysem needs to be far better integrated across the entire product range. He cautioned that it will be too expensive to cover all of the technology options available. "The most difficult task will be to pick the winners,” he said.
Connected-car profits
The recently published Global Automotive Executive Survey 2017 by KPMG, an advisory services company, highlights the challenges facing mobility-industry product planners. The online survey conducted last fall found that some 74% of U.K. automotive executives expect more than half of today’s car owners will not want to own a car within ten years. Self-driving technology and mobility as a service will take priority.
“Carmakers’ success will not be evaluated solely on the quantity of vehicles sold, but on the customer value over the whole lifecycle—especially when the digital ecosystem will be ready for the market," observed John Leech, KPMG's Automotive lead in the U.K. "OEMs need to rethink," he said, noting that over 75% of those surveyed believe that one connected car can generate higher revenues over its life cycle than 10 non-connected cars.
KPMG deduced that the impact of consumers shifting away from an ownership model to a vehicle-use model will reduce demand for fewer cars and therefore reduced profits from building vehicles in the future. But the survey showed that this does not worry the majority of automotive execs: 85% of the respondents said they are convinced that their company will generate higher revenues by providing new digital services, than by selling cars alone.
Ricardo's Jackson noted that while the development of autonomous vehicle technology is clearly continuing apace, "there remain many technical, operational and safety challenges to be overcome in implementing [SAE] Level 4 or 5 solutions," he explained. "Once these are overcome, the attractions are obvious to the end user.”
He added that a further impetus is the currently “very poor” asset utilization of vehicles, estimated by many as less than 5%.
“As the technology content and embedded value of vehicles increases, an increasingly servitized model of vehicle use may well emerge, based on pay-per-use or even shared usage," Jackson surmises. He added that while this is likely to substantially reduce the cost/mile for vehicle use, the transition will occur gradually.
KPMG's Leech believes the U.K. is particularly suited to the early adoption of Jackson's "servitized" model. The government's greenbelt policy has created a relatively dense urban population which, when coupled with high fuel prices, means that SAE Level 5 taxis offer a greater cost saving to the U.K. public, compared to European or North American markets.
"I believe robot taxis will revolutionize U.K. urban transportation in the second half of the next decade,” Leech said.
Diesel's future?
The survey also found that 62% of the automotive executives regard diesel technology as passé. It concluded that "traditional" powertrain technology will eventually vanish from manufacturers’ portfolios due to increasing concern over CO2 and NOx emissions.
Ricardo's Jackson is pragmatic about diesel's long term future for passenger cars, calling the combustion technology " far from passé." But he questioned whether the price of development and implementation still provides an attractive commercial case within the market, particularly for non-premium products.
"The negative effects of the plans by some city authorities to penalize the use of diesel, may well dissuade customers from selecting diesel even if such measures are aimed primarily at the legacy fleet," Jackson noted. "For these reasons it is almost certain, that the diesel share of the passenger car market will reduce over time. This is not the case, however, for heavy duty vehicles such as buses and trucks, which are more amenable to retrofit after treatment measures aimed at existing fleets and where there are few if any alternative powertrain technologies available.”
One surprise from the KPMG findings: 93% of executives surveyed are planning for their companies to invest in technology for battery electric vehicles over the next five years. In fact they expect BEVs to dominate the automotive market by 2025.
Author: Stuart Birch
Source: SAE Automotive Engineering Magazine
上世紀(jì)60年代，克萊斯勒等一眾汽車(chē)廠(chǎng)商曾斥資數(shù)百萬(wàn)美元，為汽車(chē)和卡車(chē)研制燃?xì)廨啓C(jī)發(fā)動(dòng)機(jī)。（圖片來(lái)源：菲亞特克萊斯勒）
上世紀(jì)50年代后期的產(chǎn)品規(guī)劃風(fēng)格。福特曾計(jì)劃推出一款神奇的未來(lái)核動(dòng)力汽車(chē)Nucleon，還曾計(jì)劃在幾年后推出一款下置發(fā)動(dòng)機(jī)（發(fā)動(dòng)機(jī)置于駕駛室下方）的皮卡。
畢馬威汽車(chē)業(yè)務(wù)英國(guó)總監(jiān)John Leech相信，英國(guó)的環(huán)境特別適合率先開(kāi)始采用自動(dòng)駕駛汽車(chē)服務(wù)。
里卡多的Neville Jackson教授表示，“我認(rèn)為產(chǎn)品規(guī)劃一直是汽車(chē)行業(yè)所面臨的關(guān)鍵挑戰(zhàn)。”