2015年，采埃孚集團(tuán)(ZF)成功收購(gòu)美國(guó)天合(TRW)，超級(jí)巨頭一夜崛起。憑借兩家公司在行業(yè)領(lǐng)域、財(cái)務(wù)方面和電子技術(shù)方面的實(shí)力，合并后的新公司將給全球所有其他主要一級(jí)供應(yīng)商帶來(lái)嚴(yán)峻挑戰(zhàn)。
由于兩家公司也采用了“戴姆勒-克萊斯勒”式的“對(duì)等合并”，部分觀察人士可能會(huì)質(zhì)疑采埃孚的收購(gòu)邏輯，或者說(shuō)這兩家集團(tuán)的公司文化是否存在致命性差異。
不過(guò)，采埃孚汽車(chē)底盤(pán)技術(shù)部門(mén)負(fù)責(zé)人Holger Klein博士認(rèn)為，這兩家公司擁有共同的愿景，強(qiáng)強(qiáng)聯(lián)手有百利而無(wú)一害。“歸根結(jié)底，本次合并的動(dòng)因是‘我們想為客戶提供完整的底盤(pán)系統(tǒng)’，而天合可以提供我們所不具備的部件和技術(shù)能力。”Klein在最近一次與《國(guó)際汽車(chē)工程（AEI）》的采訪中表示，“我們兩家公司均著眼于安全、效率和自動(dòng)駕駛等方面的發(fā)展，彼此的產(chǎn)品結(jié)構(gòu)也相當(dāng)互補(bǔ)。”
采埃孚也許還可以選擇收購(gòu)擁有類似背景的小型公司，但對(duì)于天合，本次收購(gòu)則是一個(gè)可以幫助公司實(shí)現(xiàn)強(qiáng)大技術(shù)協(xié)同效應(yīng)的“千載難逢的機(jī)會(huì)”。據(jù)了解，本次收購(gòu)的內(nèi)容也包括Klein博士領(lǐng)導(dǎo)的汽車(chē)底盤(pán)系統(tǒng)部門(mén)，該業(yè)務(wù)部擁有近16,000名員工，市值達(dá)60億美元。
Klein博士表示，無(wú)論是懸掛、連桿、結(jié)構(gòu)部件、球形接頭，還是穩(wěn)定系統(tǒng)，未來(lái)，我們部門(mén)的所有產(chǎn)品均將成為“智能”的機(jī)械部件。他提到，“我們認(rèn)為，真正控制車(chē)輛的側(cè)向、縱向和垂直動(dòng)力性能及方向的是汽車(chē)底盤(pán)。那么，如果你想在該領(lǐng)域內(nèi)獲得成功，成為真正的技術(shù)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者，就一定要將這些組件整合至車(chē)輛的機(jī)械系統(tǒng)之中。”
處理器速度存在挑戰(zhàn)
采埃孚對(duì)天合的收購(gòu)“極大地”增強(qiáng)了集團(tuán)的技術(shù)實(shí)力，Klein博士表示，“如果單獨(dú)討論底盤(pán)技術(shù)本身，我們的確將轉(zhuǎn)向系統(tǒng)合資公司的股份出售給了博世(Bosch)，但我們也獲得了天合的轉(zhuǎn)向技術(shù)，而且事實(shí)上天合的技術(shù)更適合集成至我們的產(chǎn)品中。制動(dòng)系統(tǒng)對(duì)車(chē)輛的縱向動(dòng)力性能非常關(guān)鍵，而基于攝像頭、雷達(dá)等傳感器技術(shù)的高級(jí)駕駛輔助系統(tǒng)(ADAS)和主動(dòng)安全技術(shù)也必不可少。這一切都可以協(xié)助我們順應(yīng)大趨勢(shì)，邁入自動(dòng)駕駛汽車(chē)的未來(lái)。”
可以說(shuō)，電子元件與機(jī)械、液壓系統(tǒng)的融合，將成為汽車(chē)行業(yè)面對(duì)的最大挑戰(zhàn)之一。然而，Klein博士卻認(rèn)為，車(chē)載處理器有限的計(jì)算能力才是行業(yè)首先應(yīng)當(dāng)面對(duì)的首要瓶頸。他說(shuō)，“我們必須找到一種解決方法。”目前來(lái)說(shuō)，車(chē)載計(jì)算機(jī)首先必須完成圖像識(shí)別和軌跡計(jì)算，接著進(jìn)行判斷，之后才能指揮促動(dòng)器完成無(wú)論任何操作。
Klein博士解釋道，“這個(gè)過(guò)程是以毫秒計(jì)算的，而且通過(guò)制動(dòng)e-booster或偏航控制等電氣化技術(shù)實(shí)現(xiàn)促動(dòng)器加速，將進(jìn)一步縮短所用的時(shí)間。”
很顯然，人工智能的出現(xiàn)將成為使能自動(dòng)駕駛未來(lái)的關(guān)鍵因素，而采埃孚將與英偉達(dá)(Nvidia)合作，從2018年開(kāi)始研發(fā)、生產(chǎn)ZF ProAI 人工智能處理器。
Klein博士表示，“大家總是在討論車(chē)內(nèi)到底需要多少計(jì)算機(jī)或ECU，該向 ECU中集成哪些模塊，又需要什么級(jí)別的處理能力，然而，在我們的視角中，目前，在緊急情況下，車(chē)輛的車(chē)載計(jì)算機(jī)處理能力已經(jīng)達(dá)到了一定極限，而廠家又是否愿意犧牲多媒體系統(tǒng)的配置，以換取為這些復(fù)雜算法多爭(zhēng)取到的幾毫秒時(shí)間？很顯然，我們需要更加強(qiáng)勁的車(chē)載計(jì)算機(jī)平臺(tái)。”
為X-by-wire線控做好準(zhǔn)備
本研發(fā)項(xiàng)目的一個(gè)重要特點(diǎn)，在于推出了一個(gè)48V混動(dòng)電系，進(jìn)而支持自動(dòng)駕駛系統(tǒng)及其他一些目前采用機(jī)械或液壓驅(qū)動(dòng)的車(chē)輛系統(tǒng)。
“我們認(rèn)為，線控技術(shù)一定可以協(xié)助我們實(shí)現(xiàn)新一代促動(dòng)系統(tǒng)的開(kāi)發(fā)，”Klein博士預(yù)測(cè)，“目前的挑戰(zhàn)在于將如何設(shè)計(jì)冗余系統(tǒng)、展示故障安全機(jī)制，確保這些電子系統(tǒng)已經(jīng)通過(guò)全面驗(yàn)證。此外，一些相關(guān)法規(guī)也需要進(jìn)行相應(yīng)修改。”
此外，盡管Klein博士承認(rèn)，電動(dòng)交通出行解決方案的確“有助于”降低市內(nèi)的CO2等排放，但最簡(jiǎn)單的方法仍是采用油電混合系統(tǒng)。“我們都是工程師，也一直在考慮油電混合是否是最有效的解決方案，我的答案是肯定的。”不過(guò)，Klein博士也同時(shí)承認(rèn)，無(wú)論是從熱效應(yīng)、減重還是封裝方面來(lái)看，為車(chē)輛配備兩套推進(jìn)系統(tǒng)的確都不是最理想的選擇。
Klein博士表示，“最大的挑戰(zhàn)在于，判斷哪些技術(shù)解決方案可以提供合理的續(xù)航里程、滿足客戶需求，而且有能力實(shí)現(xiàn)碳中性目標(biāo)。”
Klein博士認(rèn)為，這種不斷增加的精密度和復(fù)雜度背后隱藏著“巨大的”成本壓力，但可能很多全球立法者并不會(huì)考慮這個(gè)問(wèn)題。他說(shuō)，一夜之間從一種技術(shù)轉(zhuǎn)到另一種技術(shù)總是“一種巨大的挑戰(zhàn)”，特別是對(duì)于汽車(chē)行業(yè)這樣一個(gè)可能做決定需要5年時(shí)間，真正推進(jìn)技術(shù)需要15年時(shí)間的保守行業(yè)。
ZF’s takeover of TRW in 2015 sent shockwaves through the industry by over night creating a mega global business with the industrial and financial clout and electronics capability to challenge the top Tier 1s.
Some observers might have questioned the takeover’s logic or whether the cultural differences might prove destructive, as they were in the Daimler-Chrysler “merger of equals.”
But Dr. Holger Klein, head of ZF's Car Chassis Technology group, sees nothing but benefits from two businesses sharing similar visions joining forces. “At the end of the day the rationale behind the deal was industry logic where you say, ‘I want to offer the complete chassis’ and missing components on our side were complemented by components and know-how from TRW," he said during a recent interview with Automotive Engineering. "The vision is the same, centered around safety, efficiency and autonomous driving. The components were very complementary."
ZF could have bought smaller companies with similar expertise, but the TRW opportunity was "a once in a lifetime opportunity" for a mighty technology synergy—including in Dr. Klein's chassis systems domain, a €6B business with 16,000 employees.
He said all of the division's products—including suspension, linkages, structural parts, ball joints and stabilizers—are becoming “intelligent” mechanical components. “What we say is that the chassis controls the vehicle’s lateral, longitudinal and vertical dynamics as well as its guidance. If you want to be successful in this area and be a technology leader you really need to combine these components into mechanical systems," he noted.
The processor-speed challenge
ZF’s acquisition of TRW expanded its technological capability “enormously,” said Klein, “If you 'peel the onion' and talk about the chassis technology itself, we lost the steering systems joint venture with Bosch but we got steering technology from TRW which, by the way, is very much integrated into the business. The braking side is very important for longitudinal dynamics and then this entire arena of ADAS [advanced driver assistance systems] and active safety which helps us a lot with sensor technology like cameras, radar, etc. This all comes in together in what we need to serve the mega trend of autonomous-driving cars.”
It is this melding of electronics with mechanical and hydraulic systems that is, arguably, one of the big challenges facing the industry. Dr. Klein, however, argues that it’s the computing power on-board the vehicle which is proving more of a bottleneck than the other systems. "We have to develop strategies to counter this," he said. Computers need to translate image recognition and calculate trajectories to define a strategy that can prime the actuators ahead of any eventuality.
"We’re talking milliseconds here and speeding up actuators through electrification, like a braking e-booster or yaw control, will improve reactions even more,” Dr. Klein explained.
Clearly the emergence of Artificial Intelligence will be key to future autonomous driving strategies as ZF’s deal with Nvidia to develop and produce the ZF ProAI processor from 2018 onwards demonstrates.
“There always was a discussion of how many computers or ECUs we need in a car," he said, "and what do you integrate into the ECUs and what kind of computing power do you need? What we see is that we’re already reaching certain limits of our computing power if the car is in an emergency situation. Do you need to ramp down the multi-media system just to get a few more milliseconds of computing power to solve these complex algorithms? There’s a clear need for more powerful platforms than we have today.”
Preparing for X-by-wire
An intrinsic element of this development will be the roll-out of 48-volt hybrid systems as an enabling technology for both autonomous driving systems and other technologies within vehicles that are currently mechanically or hydraulically powered.
“We actively see the electrics driving us to the next generation of actuation which will certainly be X-by-wire," Dr. Klein forecast. "The challenge will be how do you create redundancies and show the fail safe mechanisms and make sure the electrics are really proven? There’s also a need for legislation to be updated to allow for these developments to happen.”
Whilst he concedes that electromobility “helps” with city driving in lowering CO2 and other emissions, Dr. Klein believes the easiest solution is a hybrid. "I think there is no way round hybrids, although we are all engineers and we doubt if that is the most efficient means of solving the issue." He concedes that having two propulsion systems on board is not a thermodynamic optimum, nor is it a mass and packaging ideal.
"The big challenge is which technological solutions will deliver the right range, meet customer demands and is CO2 neutral?” he said.
Underlying this growing sophistication and complexity is "enormous" cost pressure, which Dr. Klein believes global legislators don't always consider. Shifting from one technology to another overnight presents "a huge challenge" to an industry that makes decisions that won’t materialize for five years and won't be amortized for another 15 years, he said.
Author: Ian Adcock
Source: SAE Automotive Engineering Magazine
采埃孚汽車(chē)底盤(pán)技術(shù)負(fù)責(zé)人Holger Klein博士。