今天的電化學(xué)電池就如同現(xiàn)代世界中的魔法石——只要放入電池，就可以把靜止的大塊頭車輛變得動力十足。在這一點上，技術(shù)庫中的其他任何法寶都無法與之抗衡。
但是雖說汽車電池是一種現(xiàn)代“魔法”，人們對它或多或少總還是有點兒不滿：它們耗電太快，充電又太慢，而且還挺沉。要是你打算組合一大堆鋰離子電池來驅(qū)動電動車開上幾百英里，這花費絕對叫人望而生畏。
也難怪目前全球售出的新車中只有0.5%是插電式純電動車。同樣在人們意料之中的是，美國國家研究委員會（US National Research Council）專家組稱鋰離子電池的高成本、有限續(xù)航里程和充電問題這三大短板，是推廣插電式純電動車的主要障礙。專家組2015年發(fā)布的《克服推廣插電式純電動車的障礙》報告中提醒讀者，如果電池的技術(shù)問題得不到解決，那么汽車行業(yè)的經(jīng)濟(jì)效益和長期持續(xù)發(fā)展將會受到越來越大的影響。
爭取逐漸實現(xiàn)$100/kW·h的電池組價格目標(biāo)
電動車的規(guī)劃師與工程師們非常清楚，電池成本是他們面臨的最大障礙，而哪家廠商的解決方案能走得更遠(yuǎn)，也直接關(guān)乎其他相關(guān)問題能否得到順利解決。好消息是，電池成本正在穩(wěn)步下降，而這也把企業(yè)逼上了“降低成本的風(fēng)口浪尖”，Lux Research（新興技術(shù)與市場調(diào)研公司）的高級分析師CosminLaslau如是說。
Laslau是《超越極限：鋰離子電池的成本降低及其對汽車與固定式蓄電池技術(shù)的影響》這一分析報告的首席作者。他解釋說，該報告是在對電池制造商、OEM，以及政府與高校研究人員進(jìn)行采訪后，基于所收集的信息完成的。報告中還構(gòu)建了一個詳細(xì)的“自下而上的成本模型”，通過比較電池化學(xué)原理、形狀系數(shù)、生產(chǎn)規(guī)模、制造地點等其他相關(guān)因素等，對未來電池的技術(shù)與價格進(jìn)行評估。
LuxResearch的報告中估計，到2025年，領(lǐng)先的電池制造商（如松下）所制造的鋰離子車用電池組的價格將降至$172/ kW·h，較為落后的制造商所提供的電池組價格大約是$229/kW·h。而目前大多數(shù)電動車電池組的價格還停留在$400/kW·h左右。
Laslau提到，$200/kW·h的價格水平，將是電動車電池組投入大規(guī)模生產(chǎn)的門檻。美國先進(jìn)電池聯(lián)盟（U.S.Advanced Battery Consortium）則認(rèn)為，$100/kW·h的電池組價格水平，才真正標(biāo)志著電動車銷售騰飛的起點。
這一觀點與LG化學(xué)、博世、通用和特斯拉等企業(yè)的預(yù)測基本一致。這些機(jī)構(gòu)預(yù)測，到2020年底，電池組的價格將降至$300/kW·h。報告提出，如果研發(fā)人員能夠?qū)㈦姵爻杀窘抵?300/kW·h以下，那么10到15年后，電動車制造商將有機(jī)會將銷售量提升到數(shù)百萬輛。
“千兆電池工廠”之爭
Laslau將電池業(yè)描述為競爭激烈、高度隱秘、極其保守，且為幾大老牌霸主所占領(lǐng)的行業(yè)。要在這些巨頭之間進(jìn)行相互比較是非常復(fù)雜的，因為每一家都采取了自己獨有的技術(shù)路線，Laslau補(bǔ)充道。
報告稱，為了有效降低成本，并保證供應(yīng)鏈的安全，汽車整車廠和電池制造商正在聯(lián)合起來，將電池生產(chǎn)的規(guī)模拓展到前所未有的水平。
例如，松下和特斯拉正在建設(shè)一座耗資50億美元，產(chǎn)能達(dá)到35 GW·h的巨型電池工廠，也就是所謂的千兆電池工廠（Gigafactory）。這座位于內(nèi)華達(dá)州的電池工廠旨在生產(chǎn)出比現(xiàn)有工廠所制造的產(chǎn)品成本低廉30%－50%的單體電池和電池組。松下公司目前在為特斯拉供應(yīng)的是采用鎳鈷鋁酸鋰（NCA）18650圓柱型鋰離子電池。每輛特斯拉Model S需要使用到6000多個單體電池，而松下能夠以$265/kW·h的價格為特斯拉提供比能量高達(dá)250 W·h/kg的電池。
相較之下，其他競爭對手的遜色很多了。Laslau表示，日產(chǎn)－AESC，LG化學(xué)和三星SDI目前銷售的電池單元僅能提供比能量在140 W·h/kg到170 W·h/kg之間的電池，而在電池的能量密度方面，他們與松下之間也存在著相似程度的差距。這些公司仍然沿用傳統(tǒng)的錳酸鋰（LMO），生產(chǎn)的是體積更大的棱柱形和袋狀的電池單元，因為這兩類電池比圓柱形的電池單元更容易集成與管理。
Laslau警告說，除非這些公司能把電池組成本降到$261/kW·h，否則在未來十年內(nèi)，將會面臨遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)落后于競爭對手的風(fēng)險。報告稱，這些公司目前正在努力向能量密度更高的鎳鈷錳酸鋰（NMC）電池技術(shù)過渡。比如，LG化學(xué)的目標(biāo)是在與“千兆電池工廠”競爭的同時，到2017年使電池比能量達(dá)到250 W·h/kg。這家韓國電池巨頭稱，產(chǎn)能達(dá)到3-4 GW·h之后，降低成本的壓力就不足為懼了。
Lux的分析報告還對中國的比亞迪作出了預(yù)測，認(rèn)為其到2025年將實現(xiàn)$211/kW·h的電池組成本和 8 GW·h的產(chǎn)能。Laslau認(rèn)為，雖然磷酸鐵鋰單體電池的電壓較低，但是比亞迪還是偏好使用磷酸鐵鋰電池技術(shù)，因為他們覺得這種電池更安全，更經(jīng)濟(jì)，在能量密度相對較低的電池中是不錯的選擇。
另一家重量級廠商是在中國積極發(fā)展業(yè)務(wù)的美國電池制造商——波士頓電池，該公司生產(chǎn)的鈷酸鋰(Lithium Cobalt)單體電池比能量可達(dá)200 W·h/kg。據(jù)新聞報道，該公司于2014年12月獲得了中國政府機(jī)構(gòu)2.9億美元的“財政支持”，用以將其電池工廠的產(chǎn)能擴(kuò)大到4 GW·h。
價格戰(zhàn)正在醞釀之中？
Laslau認(rèn)為，生產(chǎn)工廠的選址十分重要。日本生產(chǎn)的單體電池比中國生產(chǎn)的同等大小和形狀系數(shù)的產(chǎn)品價格高15%，原因是中國的勞動力、原材料和土地成本都更低，而本地化的高效供應(yīng)鏈也是一大優(yōu)勢。選擇Co-location的本地化生產(chǎn)模式，讓制造商能夠?qū)?yīng)商施加更多的影響，最終降低成本，并獲得當(dāng)?shù)卣嗟闹С帧?/p>
LuxResearch的這篇報告肯定了電池正極是鋰離子電池中花費最高的部件，因為其原料中包括價格昂貴的鎳，鈷和鋰。舉例來說，一家產(chǎn)能為1-GW·h的韓國工廠所生產(chǎn)的鎳鈷錳酸鋰（NMC）袋狀電池的正極材料所耗費的成本占到電池總成本的25%，而其余的成本組成分別為：電池組管理系統(tǒng)－16%，電池組熱學(xué)系統(tǒng)－8%，負(fù)極材料－8%，生產(chǎn)設(shè)備折舊－8%，電池單體生產(chǎn)人工成本－8%，電池單體制造的土地使用成本－6%，電池單體固定成本－6%，電池組生產(chǎn)人工成本－5%，集流器－3%，電池隔膜－3%，電解質(zhì)－1%。
Laslau認(rèn)為，插電式電動車電池的價格在未來十年的發(fā)展趨勢難以預(yù)測，“在未來5到10年，我們有可能會看到行業(yè)的整合，也許市場上只會剩下兩三家大型供應(yīng)商，這意味著要爭取市場份額，企業(yè)之間將會進(jìn)行激烈的價格戰(zhàn)”。
Today’s electrochemical battery is like a latter-day philosopher’s stone—just insert and inanimate objects spring to life. Nothing else in our technological arsenal can compare.
But despite this bit of modern magic, everybody has a beef with batteries. Their charge runs out too soon, and takes too long to recharge; they weigh too much, etc. And when lots of lithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries are ganged together to propel an electric vehicle (EV) several hundred miles, the cost quickly becomes prohibitive.
It’s little wonder then that less than 0.5% of new cars sold worldwide are plug-in vehicles. It’s also no surprise that a panel of U.S. National Research Council experts cited the high costs as well as range and recharging shortcomings of Li-ion batteries as the principal obstacles to widespread adoption of plug-in vehicles. Their 2015 report, “Overcoming Barriers to Deployment of Plug-in Electric Vehicles,” warns that inadequate battery technology, if not addressed, will increasingly limit the auto industry's profitability and long-term sustainability.
Toward the $100/kW·h pack, slowly
Electrified vehicle planners and engineers know that battery cost is their principal impediment and the issue whose solution would go a long way toward resolving most other problems. The good news is that those costs are falling slowly but steadily, leaving the industry “on the cusp of affordability,” said Cosmin Laslau, senior analyst at Lux Research, a technology and market research firm.
Laslau is the lead author of an analysis titled “Crossing the Line: Li-ion Battery Cost Reduction and Its Effect on Vehicles and Stationary Storage.” The study, he explained, is based on interviews with battery builders, OEMs, and government and university researchers. It also includes a detailed “bottom-up cost model” to account for the differences in battery chemistry, form factor, production scale, manufacturing locations and other issues when assessing forthcoming battery technology and future prices.
The Lux report estimates that by 2025, Li-ion EV battery pack prices from a leading manufacturer such as Panasonic should fall to $172 kW·h, while the “laggard manufacturers” should achieve pack prices around $229/kW·h. Most automotive packs currently cost around $400/kW·h.
Laslau said a $200/kW·h pack price is considered to be the entry point to a large-scale EV market. EV sales would truly take off at a $100/kW·h price point, according to the U.S. Advanced Battery Consortium.
This scenario generally aligns with predictions by LG Chem, Bosch, GM and Teslathat battery pack prices will trend toward the $300/kW·h level by 2020. If developers can drive price down to $300/kW·h or less, the report stated, EV makers will have a chance to sell millions of units by the mid- to late 2020s.
Bucking the 'gigafactory' trend
Laslau characterized the battery business as a fiercely competitive, highly secretive and strongly conservative industry with several large and long-established incumbents. Comparing their efforts is complicated by the fact the each player is taking its own particular technological path, he added.
Automotive OEMs and battery builders are joining forces to scale up production to unprecedented levels in the quest for cost reduction and supply chain security, the report said.
Panasonic and Tesla, for example, are pursuing economies of scale by building a colossal $5-billion, 35 GW·h-capacity battery plant. The so-called “Gigafactory” in Nevada is designed to spit out cells and packs that would cost from 30% to 50% less than the incumbent industry's current product. The Japanese company currently supplies Tesla with small, 18650-form-factor Li-ion cells featuring nickel cobalt aluminum (NCA) cathodes. These cells, over 6,000 of which power each Model S sedan, deliver a high specific energy of 250 W·h/kg at a cost of $265/kW·h.
Meanwhile, competitors appear to trail significantly. Nissan-AESC, LG Chem andSamsung SDI currently sell cells that offer between 140 W·h/kg and 170 W·h/kg, and lag in energy density by a similar amount, Laslau said. Their larger prismatic and pouch-type cells are simpler to integrate and manage versus cylindrical cells, and traditionally use lithium manganese oxide (LMO) chemistries.
These companies risk falling behind during the coming decade with packs costing $261/kW·h unless they upgrade their production methods, he cautioned. They are now transitioning toward greater use of the more energy-dense lithium nickel manganese cobalt (NMC) family, the report stated. LG Chem, for example, is aiming at 250 W·h/kg by 2017 while bucking the ‘gigafactory’ trend. The South Korean battery giant claims that meaningful cost reductions taper off after 3 to 4 GW·h of production capacity.
The Lux analysis in addition predicts that China’s vertically integrated BYD will achieve $211/kW·h pack costs by 2025 by pushing capacities up to 8 GW·h. BYD favors cells with lithium iron phosphate chemistry, which it claims is a safer, cheaper, alternative with somewhat less energy density—though the cells are “tweaked to increase voltage,” according to Laslau.
Another big player is Boston-Power, a American/Chinese maker of “lithium cobalt” cells that offer 200 W·h/kg. In December 2014 the company received $290 million in “financial support” from Chinese government agencies to scale its battery factories up to 4 GW·h capacity, according to press reports.
Price war brewing?
Production plant location matters, Laslau noted. Cells that are made in Japan cost 15% more than those of equivalent size and identical form factor manufactured in China because of lower labor costs, cheaper materials and land, as well as a localized, efficient supply chain. Co-location also enables makers to exert more influence on suppliers to reduce costs and extract incentives from local governments.
The Lux report confirmed that the cathode remains the most costly components of Li-ion batteries because they contain high-priced nickel, cobalt and lithium. For NMC pouch cells made in a 1-GW·h South Korean factory, for example, the cathode accounts for about 25% of the total pack cost. The remaining costs break down as follows: battery pack management system—16%; pack thermal system—8%; anode materials—8%; depreciation of equipment—8%; cell labor—8%; land cost for cell manufacturing—6%; cell fixed costs—6%; pack labor—5%; current collectors—3%; separators—3%; and electrolytes—1%.
Just how plug-in battery prices will fare over the next decade is hard to predict, Laslau said.
“In 5 or 10 years we may see consolidation, with only two or three big suppliers remaining. That could mean a price war to capture market share,” he noted.
Lux Research的分析報告稱，鋰離子電動車電池組的價格正在穩(wěn)步下降，這將使電動車價格進(jìn)一步降低。
Lux Research的電池專家認(rèn)為，電動車電池組中最昂貴的部件是電池正極，其生產(chǎn)原料將會逐漸從鎳鈷鋁酸鋰（NCA）轉(zhuǎn)換為鎳鈷錳酸鋰（NMC）材料。
松下公司與特斯拉正在興建“千兆電池工廠(Gigafactory)”，為即將投產(chǎn)的Model X 原型車和價格更為實惠的Model 3車型提供能源。
每輛特斯拉Model S汽車的電池組中，有6000多個松下圓柱狀NCA陰極鋰離子電池，即形狀系數(shù)為18650的電池。
新型鋰離子化學(xué)電池，如Faradion公司的鈉電池設(shè)計方案，有望最終降低電動車電池組成本。
2014年10月，韓國公司LG化學(xué)開始在中國南京興建電動車電池工廠。